Monday, March 16, 2015

Is it time to trade Tesla Motors (TSLA)?

What I like about TSLA is that the probability distribution of its price divided by the price of the S&P500 is really close to a normal distribution.



In blue TSLA and in red the probabilistic fit. The probability that TSLA goes above $196 according to this model is 0.97. This indicates that it may be the right to jump back in.

There's also encouraging news regarding the battery:

Tesla (TSLA) cars may soon be able to go farther on a single charge. The electric car company is hinting at battery life upgrades to the Model S sedan. Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, tweeted that the car will receive an update to "end range anxiety," and announced that details will be released during a Thursday press conference. The standard Model S can travel about 200 miles per charge. - Yahoo Finance

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