Oil is up pre-market which is a good news. I’m still holding UWTI at $2.85. I did some analysis this morning to confirm that I want to keep it and not sell it pre-market, and it is promising.
Of course, oil is very volatile so we should expect swings. However, according to my model of oil, we should see USO hitting $18.60 this week at one point. This means UWTI should be back around $3.20 at one point.
Some interesting probabilities from my analysis for today are:
P(USO>18.11)= 98.75%
P(USO<18.11)= 1.25%
If it goes up, I will set my take profits as I always do; in steps.
I know that a lot of traders are stuck in UWTI around $3.20-$3.30. Of course I can’t predict the future and I don’t recommend anything, but if I was in this situation (I would not be, because I use stop losses and would have been kicked out before) I would remain in UWTI and not sell from the time being. I would even maybe average down.
There’s also a rumor of the possibility of an OPEC emergency meeting. If you’re long oil, my opinion is to discard this news. If it doesn't happen, you won’t suffer from it if you have not based your decisions on it. If it does happen and you ignored it, you will have even more profit than you expected.
What do you think? - I wish you a good day trading and a lot of money! -
No comments:
Post a Comment