By looking at this chart, you will notice that the S&P500 is cycling around the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate. When the rates spread is high it pulls the S&P500 up, and when it is down it pulls the S&P500 down.
The first questions is: What happened in 2012? It seems like we were about to get hit by another recession. This has been avoided for many reasons I wont mention here. However, you can see that the bounce is almost complete. When the spread is growing like this, it's not promising for the stock market
Does this mean we're heading right into a new recession? Maybe. Or I could answer your question by a controversial question: Have we left the last recession?
The monetary stimulus in place around the world could keep the situation at a status-quo for a very long time. George Soros already said stating his principle of reflexivity that sometimes the stock market can be so detached from the real economy that it can never come back.
Are we entering a phase of inertia? Will the stock market be pushed like a rock into space? Only the future will tell.
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