Friday, February 27, 2015

After hours trading summary


Lets not hide the truth: today was an amazingly boring day. Commodities moved mainly sideways except when gold surged this morning.

I entered JNUG excepting GDXJ to outperform GDX, which ended up not being the case. I’m not really satisfied of my trading day because of that. Still, I made a little more than 2% return which is more than most GICs!

The difficult question I had to answer was if keeping JNUG over the weekend was a good idea or not. It may be surprising, but I actually think it can be a good idea to keep JNUD or NUGT over the weekend. My analysis shows that gold should continue to rise Monday.

That being said, weird things can happen over a two days period. That adds a layer of risk to your trade, because you can’t get out if you need to. For that reason, I try to always exit all my positions before the end of the trading day.

Of course, this applies when I’m on “day trading” mode. I think a good trader needs to be versatile. In some markets swings are the most profitable, in some others it’s day trading, and in some others it’s scalping. It’s relative to the volatility and the velocity of the market in any giving point in time.


On that note, I wish you a good weekend!
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9 comments:

  1. Samir ShahFebruary 27, 2015 at 6:50 PM

    I like how you get your percentages on the chance of GLD and GDXJ going up, I wonder how you get them? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mancini ResearchFebruary 27, 2015 at 8:45 PM

    Thanks Samir I appreciate it. It would require something like an ebook to explain everything. Basically, I'm modeling the relative value of a stock/ETF/ETN/etc with a probabilistic model. This allows me to extract probabilities of certain events, like behing higher or lower than a specific price.

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  3. Samir ShahFebruary 27, 2015 at 8:47 PM

    Thanks by the way, I was wondering what your background is?

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  4. Mancini ResearchFebruary 27, 2015 at 8:52 PM

    I have a bachelor degree in financial mathematics, and have been investing and trading successfully for years now. What about you Samir??

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  5. Samir ShahFebruary 27, 2015 at 8:54 PM

    Been trading for a couple of years. Have a computer science degree. Been looking for a good strategy and looks like I found a home here.

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  6. Mancini ResearchFebruary 27, 2015 at 9:00 PM

    I'm happy it's helping you Samir:)

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  7. Peter DodsonFebruary 27, 2015 at 9:21 PM

    Excellent article sir. I agree with you on the need to be versatile. Have a fantastic weekend. I hope DUST goes up at some point next week. I am still averaged at 13.87.

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  8. Mancini ResearchFebruary 27, 2015 at 9:32 PM

    Have an excellent weekend Peter! $13.87 is a good average, I hope you'll turn out a profit next week.

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  9. Peter DodsonFebruary 27, 2015 at 10:10 PM

    Thank you I hope so too

    ReplyDelete

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