Well I'm paying a high price now with NUGT sitting at about $13, eating a chunk of my 85% profit YTD. It sounds pretty bad, but I'm still confident we will see gold heading way higher soon. I was expecting a pop this week, which didn't happened.
Some of my readers asked me if I got out at one point, mostly when NUGT hit $14. I didn't and I think many of them must be wondering why. To answer I will use a poker concept called being "pot committed".
Basically, there's a point where you invested so much in the pot that even if odds are not favourable you have no choice but to continue to play the hand. If you fold at that point your expected value for profit turns negative. I am pot comited right now with NUGT.
The good news however is that I don't see miners down at these levels for a long period of time. Matter of fact, I don't see gold at $1,200 for a long period of time, but higher.
I know that a lot of traders got caught in the same bull trap. Are you one of them? If you are, where do you see NUGT and gold heading?
I too, as you know, am in NUGT. I do have a significantly lower average, I'm at 14.61 per share currently. I also believe there will be a rise in GDX and subsequently NUGT. I don't guess tops but I use price action along with technical analysis to determine my exit point. I would love to see a full retracement from the high of the most recent high (16.10). I will be watching closely at several key resistance areas on the way back up...namely 14.18 then 14.5 then 14.88. If it can get past those then the possibility for a full retracement and even higher become very possible. Obviously I'm hoping for the latter.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your analysis! I believe you're right with your resistances points, but I wonder if we'll have to wait a long time to get there.
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